During 2022 and 2023, the Nordic M&A market was characterised by cautious buyers, rising interest rates and an ever-widening gap between seller expectations and buyer willingness to pay. Over the past twelve months, however, the picture has changed — dramatically.
Data from Dealsuite and White & Case shows that the Nordic market reached an aggregate deal value of nearly EUR 118 billion during the first three quarters of 2025, with an average of 1,040 announced transactions per quarter. Sweden led the region with a total deal value of around USD 31–34 billion.
But what truly stands out is the development of multiples. The median EV/EBITDA multiple for Nordic deals rose to 12.9x in 2025, compared with 8.35x the year before — the fastest revaluation in a decade.
(EV/EBITDA, Nordics)
about H1 2026
(stable since H2 2025)
Three factors driving the market
1. The rate environment has stabilised
The Riksbank cut rates three times during 2025, landing at 1.75 per cent — a level that has been maintained through five consecutive meetings. The market expects rates to remain unchanged throughout 2026. This creates predictability in financial models and makes leveraged transactions more attractive for buyers.
2. PE capital is seeking deployment
Globally, the PE industry's uninvested capital stood at a record USD 1.7 trillion at year-end 2025. In the Nordics specifically, PE investments reached EUR 66 billion — up 17 per cent from 2024 and the region's second-highest level ever. The capital needs to be deployed, and Swedish mid-market companies with strong cash flows and clear niches rank high on the list.
3. The economy is turning upwards
Swedish GDP growth is forecast at 2.6–3.0 per cent in 2026 — the fastest pace in five years. Household disposable income is rising thanks to tax cuts, real wage gains and the lower interest rate. The VAT reduction on food from 12 to 6 per cent, effective April 2026, is also pushing inflation below the Riksbank's target. It is an environment where buyers are prepared to pay more.
Those considering a sale should understand that the window we are seeing now — with high multiples, low rates and hungry buyers — historically does not stay open for long.
What it means for Swedish business owners
We see a clear pattern in our own processes: companies with recurring revenue, diversified customer bases and stable margins are priced in an entirely different category. Premium businesses in IT services, B2B services and healthcare trade at 9.5–15x EBITDA — but only if they can demonstrate predictability.
At the same time, transaction structures have evolved. Pure cash transactions are becoming increasingly rare. Earn-outs, vendor loans and rolled equity are now the norm rather than the exception. This means the actual value transfer depends at least as much on the structure as on the headline multiple.
Another important factor: Sweden's Foreign Direct Investment Act (FDI), which entered into force in 2023, has seen its scope steadily broadened. During the first three quarters of 2025, 1,335 notifications were filed — more than in all of 2024. Two investments have so far been prohibited. This adds a regulatory dimension that requires early planning in any process involving international buyers.
Timing is not about guessing — it's about reading the market
Most business owners we meet have a gut feeling about when the time is right. Often they wait "just a little longer" — for margins to improve further, or to reach a round revenue figure.
But the market does not wait. The data we see points clearly: activity is high, capital is available, and buyers are ready. If your company is performing well today, there is a strong chance you will never get better terms than now.
Linus Hogbäck
Linus has over five years of experience in the financial sector, primarily as an investor, with a background from Odevo, Fidelio Capital, eEquity and Oaklins.